Omas Bulan Samosir: Demographics of the Pandemic
Hana Fajria – FEB UI Public Relations Officer
DEPOK, Monday, 8/6/2020 – Kompas daily published an article written by Omas Bulan Samosir, a professor and researcher at the Demography Institute, FEB UI, entitled Demographics of the Pandemic. Below is the article.
Demographics of the Pandemic
President Jokowi urged the public to strictly adhere to health protocols during the Covid-19 pandemic until an effective vaccine is found. People should respond to the President’s call to help control the spread of Covid-19 and end its fatal impact (fatalities).
Serious efforts by governments around the world to enforce social and physical distancing rules have had a positive impact. Globally, the Covid-19 case fatality rate (CFR) decreased from 71 deaths per 1,000 confirmed cases on 1 May 2020 to 61 on 31 May 2020. CFR for Covid-19 varies significantly across countries/regions: zero CFR in 24 countries/regions including in four Southeast Asian countries (Vietnam, Cambodia, Timor Leste, Laos), 162 in Belgium, 189 in France, and 248, the highest, in Yemen.
Indonesia’s CFR has also decreased from 94 on 1 April 2020 to 61 on 31 May 2020. CFR for Covid-19 varies among provinces: zero in Jambi, above the national figure in 10 provinces, and the highest in North Sulawesi (109). One demographic factor that distinguishes fatality between regions is the age profile. Countries differ markedly by the percentage of the elderly population. It is estimated that 5.9 percent (458,000,000 people) of the world’s 7.8 billion population are 70 years old and over. The lowest percentage was in the United Arab Emirates (0.7 percent), Indonesia (3.7 percent), and in 48 developed countries (more than 10 percent). Japan has the highest percentage (21.8 percent).
Methods of statistical model estimation for countries show that there is a significant positive relationship between the percentage of the population aged 70 years and over and Covid-19 CFR. This means that, on average, the higher the percentage of the population aged 70 years and over, the higher the CFR. A 1 percent increase in the percentage of the population aged 70 years old and over would increase the CFR to 303 deaths per 100,000 confirmed cases.
Demographics can explain this phenomenon. According to the age profile, the population of an area is said to be “old” if the percentage of the population aged 65 years and over is 10 percent or more. In fact, many countries are currently undergoing a demographic transition towards population aging. There are 74 out of 201 countries/regions in the world that are categorized as “old”. Japan is the “oldest” country in the world. Indonesia is not yet included in the “old” category because the population aged 65 years and over is still below 10 percent. Yogyakarta is an “old” province in Indonesia. The demographic transition of aging population is closely related to the epidemiological transition in the shift of the causes of death, from death largely due to infectious diseases to chronic diseases, which would interact in unpredictable ways with a pandemic such as Covid-19.
Elderly people have a higher risk of developing chronic diseases, such as heart disease, diabetes, hypertension, and lung disease. People with existing comorbidities have a higher risk of death if they are infected with coronavirus. Indonesia’s population is expected to become “old” by 2032. Two of the most populous provinces, Central Java and East Java, will become “old” in the next five years. The aging of the population has important implications for the national health system, including for efforts to prevent Covid-19 in the future. It is important that we, particularly regional governments and the public, pay attention to the demographics of the population in the face of the Covid-19 pandemic. (hjtp)
Source: Kompas daily, Monday 8 June 2020 edition, Opinion column, page 7.
(lem)